Houla massacre and evolution of the Syrian crisis
Wednesday, 30 May 2012 09:18 GMT
The horrific Houla massacre has pushed the Syrian crisis to a new level. Post-Houla will not be like pre-Houla, as the country has now reached the stage of chaos and civil war, and the stances of all foreign and national parties will not remain the same.
There are some points that must be cleared about this massacre; the army that killed half the victims by artillery and tank shelling is mainly responsible for this massacre. Behind the army is the regime's political and security institutions and leaderships, whether they are involved, plotters or silent. This massacre has forced the regime's closest friends to condemn this dreadful incident, and to point the finger at the Syrian authorities.
The details of this crime reveal there are two criminals behind it. The army is the first criminal as it didn't hesitate in killing civilians by artillery and tank shelling, as the reports of the UN observers stated that half the victims were killed by artillery and tank bombs. However, the second criminal is the militias that beheaded the children and women using knifes and axes, a method which reflects sectarian motivations. We have experienced similar incidents in the civil wars of Lebanon and Iraq, and we can smell this kind of crime and murders as quickly as we look at the footage of the victims.
We are yet to be certain about the identity of these sectarian militias which entered Houla to commit this crime, and this issue must be subject to a reasonable, fair and professional investigation, as these characteristics are not mentioned in the official investigative commission set out by the regime. This is a sectarian crime that couldn't be committed by a army or a regime, as such crimes will not work for their favour but will bring the whole world against it including, its own friends.
The sectarian militia we are talking about is either a thugs militia or an extremist Sunnite militia which aims to accelerate chaos, civil war and foreign intervention, in order to find the right atmosphere for itself to spread and expand, as well as to create safe strongholds in which it will can create its Islamist Emirate. This is exactly like what happened before in Iraq, when similar militias killed people belonging to their own sects.
The fact, is that the whole situation in Syria has became out of control. Neither the regime can control its militias, nor the opposition is aware of the details of the militant clashes, as it lacks control on the various groups which have resorted to kidnapping.
The Houla massacre will cause a significant change in the stances of the various fronts involved in the Syrian crisis, and this change will show its results soon. It may show itself first in the US-Russia summit planned for next month, and even Kofi Annan's recent visit to Damascus will reflect some indications about the international communities new approach towards the Syrian crisis after this massacre.
Washington is finding it hard to keep watching what is happening in Syria without any intervention, while Russia seems to had enough with of defending an undefendable regime, as its becoming harder for Russia to prevent the Syrian issue from reaching chapter VII of the UN charter. In this context, there is a circulating rumours about a possible deal between the two countries, similar to the Gulf initiative for Yemen.
Day after day, the chances of reaching a political settlement for the Syrian crisis is fading , as all sects and doctrines of Syria are getting involved in the conflict. The country is being dissolved, while various minor affiliations are growing quickly to draw a new and unprecedented political map for the country, and this is what pushes me to reiterate that the most important objective is to save the unity of Syria before the civil war reaches Damascus, Allepo, Latakia and Sowaida.